Episode 218 - Lawrence Yun

Agent Series 34 – NAR’s Chief Economist: Mortgage Rates Won’t Drop to 3% — Here’s Why

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Everyone in real estate is asking the same question: when are mortgage rates going back to 3%?

According to NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, they’re not.

At least not anytime soon.

In this episode of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, James and Keith sit down with Dr. Yun to break down the real forces driving today’s housing market and why expecting ultra-low mortgage rates again may be unrealistic.

Because this isn’t just about inflation.

It’s about national debt levels, government spending, global instability and oil prices, consumer confidence, and long-term economic shifts.

Dr. Yun explains how rising national debt is putting pressure on mortgage rates, limiting how low they can realistically go even if inflation cools.

This conversation dives into:

  • Why mortgage rates are unlikely to return to 3%
  • How government debt impacts interest rates
  • What rising oil prices mean for housing
  • The reality behind today’s “K-shaped” economy
  • Why consumer confidence is at historic lows

They also break down a critical mindset shift: stop waiting for the market to change.

Start understanding the market you’re in.

Because the agents who win in this environment won’t be the ones hoping for lower rates. They’ll be the ones who know how to navigate higher ones.

Links mentioned during the show:

Connect with our guest, Dr. Lawrence Yun:

Stay ahead of the market with insights from Zillow’s Consumer Trends Report.

This annual research breaks down what buyers and sellers are actually doing — and what they expect from their agents. 

With 55% of buyers being repeat buyers, yet only 13% using their previous agent again, the message is clear: past performance doesn’t guarantee future loyalty. Even more telling, nearly half of buyers and over half of sellers hire the first agent they contact. 

Today’s clients prioritize pricing strategy, negotiation expertise, and a seamless, organized offer process. If you want to position yourself as the agent they choose in 2026, start with the data. 

Put these insights to work in your business


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